Analysts Expect Long-Term Rise in NatGas Prices by YE25

The following article based on scenario analysis offers insight into why now may be a good time to invest in domestic gas wells.

By: Sandy Segrist, Hart Energy

Henry Hub prices will likely hang around $4/MMBtu for much of 2025 and then steadily rise through the end of the decade, according to a market model presented by RBAC Inc. during a June 11 seminar.

The price will be a response to ongoing foundational changes in the marketplace, including regional shifts in supply and demand and the steady growth of the LNG market, said Bethel King, RBAC’s senior director of market analysis.

RBAC provides energy market simulation platforms. Customers can set parameters and then see how the programs model the circumstances across the supply chain and natural gas markets. During the seminar, the company’s staff analysts gave their takes on the gas market’s future.

The Henry Hub front-month futures price was $3.52/MMBtu in the afternoon of June 11. The price has remained below $4 since April following the White House declaration of tariffs.

However, the price is likely to rise because of different factors in the short, medium and long term, King said.

In 2025, long-looked-for LNG production is coming online and electrical demand for AI data centers is picking up. By the end of the year, however, one of the primary drivers of price will be weather and the falling amount of natural gas readily available for customers during the colder months of the year.

“We do not have the storage overhang that we did last year,” King said. “We’re always talking about winter when we’re talking about natural gas.”

In 2024, natural gas in storage set a five-year high going into the fall. Current natural gas storage levels are at 2.6 Tcf, about 10% lower than at the same time last year.

In the mid-term, the RBAC model showed prices rising to a breakeven point for much of the Haynesville Shale, kicking off years of strong production from the Northern Louisiana and East Texas basin.

King said natural gas prices were likely to continue rising into the 2030s as many basins become less productive.

The forecast presented came out of general themes RBAC analysts saw by running several different scenarios through their modeling software.

“The real value is running scenario analysis,” said Scott McKenna, RBAC senior analyst. “You're trying to come up with the probability of outcomes of what you think are reasonable outcomes based on a variety of different scenarios.

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 Analysts Expect Long-Term Rise in NatGas Prices by YE25 | Hart Energy