Belcher: The Golden Age of Gas is Upon Us

This article highlights how growing energy demand from AI technologies, increased domestic manufacturing, and expanding U.S. LNG exports is strengthening the long-term outlook for natural gas. Alongside recent policy shifts that support reliable energy production, these trends may enhance the strategic importance of domestic Oil and Gas development.

A recent confluence of market and public policy events has created a pathway for a “golden age” of natural gas that could last decades.

A general shift in emphasis and preference by energy companies, consumers, developers and the investment community toward reliable dispatchable energy has created newfound momentum for natural gas, nuclear and geothermal power as favored sources of power generation.

The move was led in part by the realization that, after decades of anemic growth, the U.S. is facing unprecedented demand for new power generation, primarily to support new data centers for the growing AI industry. Not only does the technology industry need a massive amount of new electrons, it requires that they be guaranteed 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

While dispatchable energy solutions like nuclear, natural gas and geothermal are zero or lower-carbon sources of energy, adequate generation capacity is the No. 1 priority for industry. This is creating a unique new set of alliances partnerships between the big tech AI hyperscalers and energy providers.

Given that this shift in uninterruptible demand is emanating from the tech sector, the darling of Wall Street for decades, major financial institutions are highly motivated to invest billions of dollars to ensure the generation and delivery of the energy needed to power this critical industry.

Manufacturing will push increased power gen

The energy demand surge to power AI is occurring at the same time that the U.S. is focusing on using trade and tariff policies to revitalize the nation’s manufacturing sector. Through this economic diplomacy, the Trump administration is seeking, and in many cases securing, major foreign investments in domestic manufacturing facilities, including automobile, aircraft, shipbuilding, electronics, materials and even power plants. These new facilities will require massive amounts of new reliable and dispatchable energy. President Donald Trump has also been a huge proponent of U.S. LNG as a source of fuel to meet the energy needs of trading partners globally. For example, the U.S.-EU trade deal includes an EU committed to buy $750 million in U.S. energy products, including LNG, through 2028. U.S. LNG exports are expected to increase from 11.9 Bcf/d in 2024 to 21.5 Bcf/d in 2030, with new facilities and expansions underway and coming online over the next several years.

At the same time, the policy landscape has changed significantly to the advantage of natural gas and other reliable sources of generation. In the first few months of the Trump administration, numerous executive orders moved U.S. energy policy emphasis away from climate goals and toward energy dominance and re-industrialization.

The establishment of the National Energy Dominance Council creates a multi-agency institution, housed in the White House, that focuses on policies and outcomes that favor U.S. energy production, transportation and infrastructure.

At the same time, the U.S. has pulled out of earlier climate commitments, repealed and pulled back on environmental policies that thwarted energy and infrastructure projects, and is moving to remove the so-called “endangerment finding” that assumes greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare.

The administration has also restored regular lease sales to federal lands and offshore waters, restored more favorable oil and gas lease terms and royalty rates, and advocated for Alaska oil and gas development, gas transportation and LNG development.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed into law on July 4 was a substantial victory for the entire natural gas value chain, including through codified mandated federal lease sales, the extension and enhancement of the tax deduction for intangible drilling costs, and preservation of tax incentives for carbon capture and storage (CCS).

It also narrowed the timeline for wind and solar to receive federal investment and production tax credits, thus impacting competition to natural gas-fired generation. It also rewarded nuclear and geothermal generation, indicating a preference for what Congress deems reliable and dispatchable power. Perhaps the most important aspect of the OBBBA for the natural gas industry was the message that it sent to the market about the U.S. government’s support for and belief in a positive future for natural gas.

Will peak shale oil hinder gas production?

These positive developments for the natural gas industry are coming at an interesting and challenging time for the domestic oil and gas industry. Forecasts for lower or stagnant crude oil prices have lowered expectations for future U.S. oil production overall. This, combined with falling domestic rig counts and reports that the easiest oil has been found and developed in the shale plays, has many analysts foretelling peak shale oil production.

Since crude oil, not natural gas (with the exception of the Marcellus Shale), has been the driver for most production in the U.S. shale plays, there are reasons to be concerned about the impact to overall U.S. natural gas production. However, we must remember the slew of challenges that shale producers, and the industry as a whole, have faced in recent years and successfully overcome by its resiliency, doing more with less and returning cash to shareholders.

Also challenging for natural gas generation is the shortage of equipment, turbines, compressors and transformers, and the impact that tariffs could have on industry’s ability to secure them for power generation and LNG production. To ensure its energy dominance goals are met, the administration should consider these equipment shortages in our dealings with trade partners.

The sustainability of natural gas is also critical to its long-term success. While it has already made enormous contributions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions through coal displacement, it is an overall contributor to GHG emissions. Its emissions can be reduced significantly through the application of best practices and technology, such as CCS.

Many gas generation projects have been approved and funded based on the use of CCS, and while a market premium does not exist for low carbon gas, it is still desired by many customers in the U.S., particularly tech companies, and abroad, especially in Europe. Reducing methane emissions, certifying natural gas and mitigating orphan wells are all practices that can improve the long-term viability and sustainability of natural gas and enhance the U.S. brand.

A lot depends on continued technological advancements

Technological enhancements can continue to contribute to the economics, efficiencies, and sustainability of natural gas along the entire value chain. We need to encourage continued private and public sector investment to provide continuous improvement to make this a reality.

This includes investments made by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), U.S. universities, and the 17 Department of Energy national laboratories that provide excellent research and are impactful.

Finally, the workforce challenges that we face in meeting our energy needs must be recognized, including by supporting STEM education throughout our education system and ensuring our trade schools and universities are providing the workers with the skills that the market needs.

Perhaps nothing is more telling about the future of natural gas than Exxon Mobil’s projection of a 20%+ increase in global natural gas demand by 2050, driven by its displacement of coal and higher electricity use in developing countries. Underscoring these trends, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects record natural gas consumption in the U.S. this year.

These predictions and trends are a far cry from the predictions that have been made for years about the end of fossil fuel. The enormous announced capital investments, the surging demand from data centers, industrial users, and LNG exports, and recent public policy developments all indicate the dawning of a golden age of natural gas that could last for generations to come.

Source: 

Belcher, Jack. “Belcher: The Golden Age of Gas Is upon Us.” The Golden Age of Gas Is Upon Us - Hart Energy, 8 Oct. 2025, www.hartenergy.com/policy-and-regulation/he-belcher-golden-age-natural-gas/.